Manitoba

매니토바주 경제는 괜찮을까? 현재까지는 OK

작성일 2008.10.09 18:08

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세계적인 신용경색 혹은 금융공황 속에서 캐나다 연방은행이 이자율을 0.5%인하했습니다. 기름값은 좀 떨어져서 안도가 되지만 한편으론 모기지(Mortgage, 주택담보융자) 이자율이 오른다고 합니다. 요즘 또다시 경제공황이 온다는 소식도 있고 이런저런 이유로 불안하기만 합니다.

오늘 10월 9일자 Winnipeg Free Press 에 따르면 아직까지는 매니토바주의 경제상황은 괜찮다고 합니다.

로얄뱅크는 매니토바주의 건실한 상반기 실적을 반영하여 2008년 경제성장율을 2.7% 성장 예측에서 3.1% 성장으로 수정한다고 발표를 했습니다.

보다 자세한 내용은 다음은 참고 하시길 바랍니다.

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출처 : Winnipeg Free Press

Manitoba's doing OK, at least for now

Martin Cash

Updated: October 9 at 09:10 AM CDT

It's hard to imagine Manitoba's economy may be outperforming the experts' forecasts, what with stock markets collapsing and national banks around the world making $1 trillion available to prop up financial markets.

But that's exactly the take the Royal Bank of Canada has on the province.

The bank has revised its forecast of 2.7 per cent growth in Manitoba for 2008 to 3.1 per cent because of stronger than anticipated data for the first six months of the year.

While the RBC report's author gamely defended his analysis, the founder of one of the province's largest homegrown financial services company was not buying it.

"If we had the Royal Bank commenting this morning, at this hour, I think they would be revising it down," said Charlie Spiring, CEO of Wellington West Capital. "I am talking to business people in this province who are having issues with banks reducing lines of credit, calling lines of credit and generally tightening the screws."

It is hard to reconcile what now seems to be an almost certain recession in the United States with a stronger-than-average growth scenario in Manitoba.

The problem is that just as there will be a lag before the U.S. bailout package produces enough confidence to allow the equity markets to come back and the credit crisis to subside, there is an opposite lag for the forecasters who use what has already happened to predict what might happen in the future.

The fact is that for the first six months of the year in Manitoba, farm cash receipts are up 12 per cent, labour income is up 6.8 per cent and retail sales are up 9.4 per cent.

In its most recent MB Check-Up report released on Wednesday, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Manitoba also showed clearly that Manitobans improved their lot across the board in 2007, including posting the largest increase in disposable income compared to the country and the other western provinces.

Those are the kind of indicators that the forecasters work with.

Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist with the Royal Bank, said notwithstanding commodity prices are coming down off their peaks, they remain above historic levels. He said revenue from export sales of those pricier commodities ought to continue to give the provincial economy a boost through the rest of the year.

"But if the weakness in the U.S. and globally is much more pronounced than what we're expecting and results in a collapse in commodity prices, you are talking about weaker national and provincial growth numbers," Ferley said. "At this point, we are not convinced that it's going to play out that way."

The other assumption the Royal Bank is making is that the global financial bailouts will be enough to instil some confidence and get the markets moving again. But it will take time for the U.S. Treasury Department to set up shop and start buying up the sub-prime mortgage-backed securities that are at the root of what is now a global financial contagion.

"It's still a pretty treacherous environment and I'm not sure if we've reached the bottom yet," he said.

In fact, much of RBC's assumptions for the performance of the Canadian economy are predicated on a mild U.S. recession, but if it is more pronounced, then Manitoba will not escape the bad stuff.

"That will imply weaker markets to export to and probably negative impact for commodity prices and we may not have that kind of the support we are counting on at the moment," Ferley said.

Whether or not that will mean Canada and Manitoba will also slip into recession remains to be seen.

Jim Hrichishen, chief economist with the provincial Finance Department, said the economic indicators are different for every recession.

For instance, he noted that Canada was in the midst of spiking interest rates and high unemployment when the economy turned south in the early '90s, neither of which is currently the case in Canada.

"In the early '90s it was a made in Canada recession," he said. "This one (if it happens) is essentially being imported from the U.S."